Computer Science Research Institute Seminar Series<http://csmr.ca.sandia.gov/csri>


Title Estimating One-Parameter Airport Arrival Capacity Distributions Using Stochastic Modeling
Speaker
E-mail
From
Tasha Inniss
innissT@trinitydc.edu
Trinity College
Date
Time
Location
Tuesday, May 22, 2001
10-11am (PST)
Bldg. 940, Auditorium (Sandia - CA)
Bldg. 980, Room 24 (Sandia - NM)

Abstract During instances of capacity-demand imbalances, efficient planning and decision-making in air traffic flow management is contingent upon the "goodness" of the models that estimate airport capacity over time. Airport capacities are subject to substantial uncertainty as they depend on stochastic weather conditions. In this talk, I will present statistical models that we developed using a "seasonal clustering" technique to estimate airport arrival capacity distributions, which are required inputs into a class of stochastic ground holding models that determine the optimal amount of ground delay to assign to incoming flights. A method for adjusting the amount of assigned ground delay in a dynamically changing Ground Delay Program (GDP) will be presented. Based on an algorithm that we developed to compare total weighted delay (after adjusting appropriately), it will be demonstrated that the statistical models yield less total weighted delay than do current operational procedures.

About the Speaker Tasha Inniss is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics at Trinity College. She is an expert in stochastic modeling.
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